Skip to content
- Bitcoin cycles follow a pattern based on Fibonacci 1.0 and the 21 EMA.
- Historical data suggests cycle tops occur within 9 to 12 months after consolidation.
- The next cycle top is expected between August and November 2025.
Bitcoin moves in cycles, each following a pattern linked to Fibonacci 1.0 and the 21 EMA. By analyzing past cycles, future trends become clearer. The focus is on how long Bitcoin consolidates below Fib 1.0 and how long it takes to reach cycle tops.
Cycle top is not to be confused with all-time high (ATH). Instead, it is a top that happens before a correction in a market. It is a pattern that foretells later price action. The last cycle top was in November 2021. Bitcoin’s historical behavior is such that it reaches a cycle top after breaking Fib 1.0.
To comprehend the cycle length, it is important to examine previous consolidations. Bitcoin has never closed a candle below the 21 EMA in a bull cycle, and it is thus a critical indicator of upcoming trends.
Bitcoin Cycle Trends and Expected Peak
Historical Bitcoin cycles follow a consistent pattern to the top of a cycle. Cycle A consolidated in 1 month and topped at 9 months, while Cycle B consolidated in 3 months and topped at 8 months. Cycle C consolidated in 1 month and topped at 12 months.
Cycle D had the longest consolidation of 8 months, and while 5 months have already lapsed since then, confirmation at cycle top is yet to come. A pattern is evident. The three completed cycles averaged 9.6 months before reaching their peak. If this pattern holds good, Bitcoin will reach its next cycle top in a similar time frame.
Predicting Bitcoin’s Next Market Peak
Analysts predict the next cycle top using historical trends and previous cycle durations. Cycle A suggests a likely top in August 2025, while Cycle B points to July 2025. Cycle C provides two possibilities—April 2025, 5 months after consolidation, and November 2025, 12 months after consolidation. These projections remain consistent with historical trends and still maintain adherence to the expectation that Bitcoin’s next cycle top will take place within this time horizon.
Having had cycle tops ranging between 9 and 12 months, Bitcoin will likely peak sometime between August and November of 2025. As Cycle D had the longest consolidation period, the subsequent peak will probably fall within this range.
The market remains unclear, but statistical indicators point to expecting a top of this cycle in 3 to 6 months. The Bitcoin price action and other important indicators, such as the 21 EMA, suggest high momentum to the upside. Traders and investors can expect a large move in the upcoming months if this continues.
Related Reading: Bitcoin Whale’s Comeback: $85M Profit and Market-Wide Implications
