Tuesday, January, 21, 2025

Is Bitcoin’s Bull Cycle at Risk? The Role of Institutions and Macroeconomic Factors

Bitcoin's market shows increased institutional involvement, but record ETF outflows and macroeconomic uncertainty raise questions about its bull cycle.
Bitcoin
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Areeba Rashid

Areeba Rashid is a dedicated crypto news writer with a passion for making complex topics accessible to everyone. She covers the latest developments in the crypto world, including in-depth price analysis, helping readers stay informed and make sense of market trends.
  • Bitcoin’s market sees a surge in institutional participation, with Coinbase’s spot volume dominance rising above 30%.
  • Despite higher trading volumes, a negative Coinbase Bitcoin premium hints at institutional-driven price corrections.
  • Bitcoin spot ETFs see record outflows, signaling institutional selling pressure and contributing to market pullback.

Bitcoin has recently witnessed certain changes in its market trends owing mainly to the institutional investors. On February 26, Ju noted on X that in the period of the past week, Coinbase’s spot volume has spiked to over 30%. Coinbase has now become involved in most of the spot trading volume of Bitcoin, a sign that there is increased institution participation.

Nevertheless, the Bitcoin trading volume and overall trading volume on the Coinbase platform have gone higher, but the Coinbase Bitcoin premium is still bearish. This premium tracks the price difference between the Bitcoin on the Coinbase and other exchanges such as the Binance. These assumptions point to the negative premium, hinting that it was the institutional investors in the United States which led to the bull market and the recent decline in prices.

Record Bitcoin ETF Redemptions

This is supported by fresh fund outflows where Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded the highest single day redemptions on February 25 at $937.78 million. This broke the earlier record of $680 million recorded on December 19, 2024. The strong redemptions signal institutional, wholesale selling pressure, which could have partly caused the recent slack in the market.

According to the 10x Research report dated February 25, the information identifies that about 44% of inflows to US-Based Bitcoin ETF are for long-term investments. These other sources seems to be corresponding to short-term arbitrage activities. This data implies that Bitcoin demand for the long-term investment in the diversified portfolios could be lower than the hype created by various outlets.

Bitcoin Bull Cycle Remains Intact

The emerging market pullback is also being additionally driven by macroeconomic factors. This has been further compounded by such fundamental factors as the uncertainty in the policy on trade between the America and the rest of the world. Canadian and Mexico’s threats of reprisals regarding Trump’s planned tariffs which ranges up to 25% on car imports in march also adds to inflation and investor’s apprehensive sentiment.

Still, some people believe that Bitcoin will recover and remain a good investment in the long-term. While analysing Bitcoin’s performance on February 19, CryptoQuant’s CEO stated that BTC’s bull cycle remains unbroken. He also noted that, in the past, Bitcoin’s prices have declined to 30% below its all-time highs and it does not mean that bull market is over.

However, the Bitcoin has not yet a clear path for the future because institutions are driving the market. However, the main reason for this is still uncertain as to whether this trend is sustainable for the long-term future of Bitcoin. The next several weeks will tell whether the BTC price will maintain the uptrend or experience another round of pullback.

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