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- Polymarket gives the GENIUS Act an 89% chance of passing in the Senate and House, with Trump likely to sign by 2026.
- The bill could allow major US companies like Apple and Google to issue their own stablecoins, transforming digital payments.
- The CLARITY Act, currently advancing in Congress, aims to provide clearer regulations for digital assets in the United States.
Polymarket is a crypto-based prediction platform that has given the GENIUS Act an 89% probability of passing in the US Senate and House. The platform also indicates that the bill will be signed into law by President Trump by the year 2026. This prediction comes after a crucial vote by the Senate and an appeal by Trump to speed up the bill.
Source: X
This projection was made shortly after the Senate passed the bill with a 68-30 vote. The future of this bill is unclear now that it is moving to the House. Lawmakers are interested in changing the bill to cover the issue of Trump and his connections with crypto, especially the stablecoin USD1 that is affiliated with World Liberty Financial.
Stablecoin Regulation Impact
Polymarket prediction looks positive, but there are no obvious signals in the House. Some legislators may engage in a review of the bill in a bid to prevent a possible conflict of interest. It seems that the present form of the bill can be challenged unless these concerns are addressed.
Big tech companies like Google and Apple were allegedly seeking to develop their tokens. According to the response, two US senators have written requests to Meta, inquiring whether they also have such plans in case the bill successfully gets enacted.
Nevertheless, President Trump has shown a desire to sign the GENIUS Act without amendments should the House vote on it immediately. According to this statement, the bill has a high chance of moving through Congress with minimal changes. The house has a Republican majority by a slim margin, which might make it easier to pass faster.
Polymarket and US Crypto
Moreover, the CLARITY Act, which would create a transparent regulatory framework around digital assets, has been moving forward in Congress. The House Financial Services Committee recently voted 32-19 on a bill to send the bill to the floor. This bill seeks to further clarify crypto market rules in the US.
Source: X
The approval of both the GENIUS and CLARITY Acts could result in a shake-up of the US cryptocurrency laws. The bills would give clearer regulations and empower the crypto market within the US. The odds at Polymarket suggest a growing confidence among crypto enthusiasts that such changes to legislation may still be forthcoming.
