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- Portugal moved to block Polymarket, but the platform stayed active.
- Heavy betting before the results raised concerns over information leaks.
- Exit polls shaped markets well before public disclosure.
According to the report, Portugal’s gambling regulator moved to shut down Polymarket after identifying illegal activity linked to political betting. The decision followed intense trading around the Portuguese presidential election.
Despite the order, the platform continued to operate for several days, triggering wider debate about enforcement, market integrity, and voter trust. The Portuguese Gaming Regulation and Inspection Service, known as SRIJ, recently identified Polymarket as an unauthorized betting platform.
National law bans political betting in all forms. The regulator classified the activity as illegal and ordered Polymarket to stop operating in Portugal within 48 hours. That deadline passed without compliance. By the following Monday, Portuguese users could still access the site.
SRIJ prepared the next step. It is planned to notify internet service providers to block access nationwide. The regulator clarified its limited powers. It oversees only licensed operators. It can request voluntary withdrawal from illegal platforms, but cannot enforce refunds.
Access Gaps in Portugal Expose Limits of Crypto Control
This gap leaves Portuguese users exposed. If access ends, bettors may not recover their funds. The situation highlights the limits of national control over global crypto platforms. It also raises questions about consumer protection in decentralized markets that operate beyond borders.
The controversy deepened as betting data emerged. In the hours before official results, markets tied to the presidential race saw massive inflows. More than four million euros flowed into the main election market shortly before projections became public.
Probabilities shifted sharply before polls closed. One candidate’s chances jumped from moderate levels to near certainty within an hour. Competing candidates saw their odds collapse. Similar moves appeared in markets predicting the next President of the Republic.
Between the sudden rise in probabilities and the first public results, trading exceeded five million euros across related markets. By the time broadcasters shared official projections, betting markets had already settled on the winner. Observers questioned how traders acted so decisively so early.
Tax Questions Grow Around Digital Betting Platforms
The answer appears linked to exit polls. Around early evening, preliminary projections circulated among polling firms and media professionals. These projections showed a clear and comfortable victory. While embargoed from public release until later, the information still moved through private channels. Markets reacted fast.
Polymarket launched in 2020 as a crypto-based prediction market. It allows users to trade outcomes tied to real-world events. Each market offers two positions. Prices range between zero and one dollar and reflect perceived probability.
Traders buy low and sell high, much like shares. Users trade until an event ends. Elections remain open until final outcomes become clear. The platform runs on blockchain rails and uses USDC, a dollar-pegged stablecoin. Transactions move quickly and at low cost.
This structure draws global liquidity. It also creates regulatory friction. In Portugal, profits face a 28 percent tax, but enforcement remains unclear. As digital prediction markets grow, regulators now face pressure to act faster and coordinate across borders.
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