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- Short-term Bitcoin whales are entering the market at an average cost basis of $91,900, nearly triple that of long-term holders, indicating heightened confidence and speculative momentum.
- A 185% cost basis gap between short- and long-term whales signals a market split unseen since 2021’s bull run.
- New institutional players appear to be driving this trend, suggesting fear of missing out (FOMO) is influencing high-stakes buying at elevated price levels.
Bitcoin whales with short-term holdings are now entering the market at prices nearly three times higher than those of long-term investors. It suggests a sharp rise in market confidence and potentially a wave of speculative fervor.
As Bitcoin continues its 2025 recovery rally, on-chain metrics are revealing a stark divide between seasoned holders and new heavyweight entrants. According to a new analysis shared by CryptoQuant contributor Axel Adler Jr., whales who recently acquired BTC are doing so at prices nearly three times higher than those who’ve been in the game longer.
The realized price, a crucial on-chain metric, represents the average acquisition cost for a specific group of Bitcoin holders. When the realized price is lower than the current market value, it implies that the group is, on average, sitting on unrealized gains. Conversely, when it’s higher, the cohort may be underwater.
But this isn’t about the average retail investor. Adler’s focus is on Bitcoin’s most influential market participants: whales, entities holding over 1,000 BTC, or more than $103 million at current prices.
The whale population is split into two distinct camps: short-term holders (STHs) and long-term holders (LTHs). STHs are defined as those who’ve acquired their coins within the past 155 days, while LTHs are those who’ve held beyond that threshold. And the data is revealing something eye-opening.
Bitcoin Whales Diverge With 91K vs 32K Cost Basis
As of now, STH whales have an average cost basis of $91,900, reflecting the price levels they’ve paid in recent months. Meanwhile, the LTH whales those who have weathered multiple market cycles, maintain a dramatically lower cost basis of $32,200. That’s a staggering 185% gap between the two groups.
This growing divergence hints at more than just price action; it signals rising fear of missing out (FOMO) among new institutional players and large investors. Unlike in the 2022 bear market, where the gap between the two whale classes narrowed to just 65%, current conditions show newcomers are willing to pay steep premiums, potentially driven by bullish sentiment and growing confidence in Bitcoin’s long-term trajectory.
Historical precedent supports this idea. During the peak of the 2021 bull run, the gap between the two cohorts widened to an all-time high of 437%, reflecting euphoric market sentiment. While the current spread hasn’t yet reached those heights, the sharp rise suggests the market may be heating up again.
Adding fuel to this narrative is Bitcoin’s continued rally, with prices recently reclaiming the $103,000 level. The fact that STH whales are entering the market so aggressively even at elevated valuations underscores a shifting sentiment. The question now is whether this momentum will sustain and whether demand from new whales will continue to widen the valuation gap.
If history is any guide, a larger spread could signal a maturing bull market but also caution against overheated buying behavior. Investors would be wise to watch the whales not just where they swim, but how much they’re willing to pay to get in.
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