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- Six Polymarket traders made near $1M on Iran strike bets placed just before reports emerged.
- Strike-related markets surged past $529M as Feb. 28 and Jan. 31 contracts drew massive volume.
- Multiple past cases, including Axiom and Maduro bets, intensify concerns over insider activity.
Six traders on Polymarket made around $1 million by betting on the probability of the United States attacking Iran before the end of February. The timing of the traders was suspicious, as the investigators observed that the traders made the bets around the time the first reports of explosions in Iran emerged.
The wallets used by the traders to invest in the platform were created in February, with the traders focusing almost exclusively on markets that made predictions regarding the timing of a U.S. military strike against Iran. Bloomberg reported the case using data obtained from an analytics platform named Bubblemaps SA.
Polymarket Activity Highlights Possible Insider Edge
The traders had made the bets using around $0.10, which resulted in huge gains after the markets related to the U.S. strikes reacted to confirmed events. Investigators observed behavior that resembled earlier cases flagged for possible insider activity on prediction platforms.
Nicolas Vaiman, the chief executive of Bubblemaps, commented on the situation: “When there is information related to war or conflict, it may move quietly before it is publicly announced.” He also pointed out that Polymarket only requires a wallet to trade: “This creates a very high level of anonymity that may prompt people to take action.”
Strike-related contracts saw heavy interest during the recent escalation. More than $529 million flowed into these markets. The Feb. 28 contract attracted the most attention, reaching roughly $90 million in trading volume. The Jan. 31 contract followed with about $42 million.
One of the six wallets had previously lost money on an earlier prediction. It later placed a larger wager that returned more than $170,000. Analysts said this pattern does not confirm wrongdoing. They also noted that U.S. officials had publicly warned of possible military action for weeks, which increased speculation.
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Insider Concerns Rise in Axiom and Maduro Bets
Polymarket has faced similar concerns in other recent cases. This week, several wallets earned more than $1.2 million by betting on a contract linked to an investigation into the DeFi platform Axiom. Their wins came shortly before investigator ZachXBT published claims that an Axiom employee and associates had engaged in insider trading since early 2025.
Another incident occurred last month. The Polymarket wallet earned about $400,000 after wagering on the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. The trade was placed shortly before the news became public, prompting further questions about the use of nonpublic information.
U.S. Representative Ritchie Torres is preparing legislation in response to these cases. The bill is called the Public Integrity in Financial Prediction Markets Act of 2026. It would bar officials and federal employees from trading prediction contracts linked to government policy when they possess nonpublic information.
Polymarket is also facing regulatory pressure globally. Several countries have restricted or banned the platform. Authorities in Europe and Asia classified its event-based markets as unlicensed online gambling rather than regulated financial trading.
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