Skip to content
- Meteora’s Polymarket odds surged to 44% in one day, triggering debate over possible informed trading.
- Early leaders Pump.fun and Axiom fell behind as traders rapidly shifted positions toward Meteora.
- The market resolves on Feb. 26 based solely on ZachXBT’s named company, with no proof of insider activity.
A Polymarket market that focused on the upcoming insider trading investigation by on-chain researcher ZachXBT saw volatility in its first day. The odds of the outcome for Meteora increased quickly.
The change prompted discussions about whether the prediction market was speculative or if it was based on information that could be considered informed.
The market opened on Feb. 23. It prompted traders to predict the cryptocurrency company that would be discussed in a report by ZachXBT on Feb. 26.
He claimed that the report would contain information about the activities of multiple employees who used company data for insider trading. He did not mention the company that was involved in the activities.
Meteora Surges to Lead as Early Front-Runners Lose Momentum
The trading data for the market showed that Pump.fun and Axiom were the leaders in the first stages. Meteora had a low implied probability at the beginning.
However, the situation changed on the first day. The odds for the outcome increased to about 44% for Meteora. The market also saw an increase in volume.
This change prompted discussions about the situation. A trader with the name Moritz commented on the situation on the X social media platform on Feb. 24.
He claimed that the situation with Meteora had not been discussed before the market opened. He wondered whether the change was based on insider information or was speculative.
The market snapshots indicated that there was a shift from the initial leaderboard. Pump.fun and Axiom were no longer at the top. Meteora had taken the top spot. The growth in the markets happened quickly.
The contract will settle according to ZachXBT on the 26th of February. The company that the contract will settle in is the one that ZachXBT mentions in the publication. The publication is the main source for the settlement. The markets do not care about the possibility that there may have been insider trading.
Also Read: Strategy Becomes Most Shorted Large-Cap Stock as Bitcoin Slump Fuels Bearish Bets
Some outcomes had very small implied probabilities. World Liberty Financial is one such example. The company’s listing happened on the same day that the company announced the stablecoin volatility event.
Polymarket Dispute System and Scrutiny Highlight Governance Risks
The company also announced that hackers tried to gain unauthorized access to the X accounts of the company’s co-founders. There is no connection between the company’s announcement and the prediction markets.
Polymarket has a set process for the resolution of the markets. The first step is proposing the outcome. There is also the possibility of a challenge window.
If the markets are challenged, they are escalated to the dispute process with UMA. Tokenholder voting is used in the dispute process with the commit and reveal phases.
Prediction markets have drawn attention from U.S. lawmakers. In early 2025, officials linked them to insider trading risks after a suspiciously timed Polymarket payout tied to a geopolitical event. Congressional statements warned that the platforms can be vulnerable to bets placed with privileged information.
The outcome of the current market depends only on what ZachXBT names in his report. The repricing seen so far reflects market activity. It does not confirm that insider trading occurred.
Also Read: South Korean Police Arrest Two After 22 BTC Vanish From Custody Vault
