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- XRP rally to $31 depends on weekly reclaim
- Wave 2 correction still controls broader XRP structure
- Analyst warns confirmation must precede Wave 3 labeling
XRP’s macro structure has moved back into focus after market analyst EGRAG Crypto revisited his long-term Elliott Wave count and clarified the single condition that could unlock a rally toward $31. In his recent X posting, he emphasized that price was still in a correction stage even though there was increased optimism in certain sections of the market. EGRAG Crypto defines Wave 3 confirmation as a resolute weekly close above the prior Wave 1 high with noticeable expansion of momentum.
Although positive gains of between $15 and $31 can be seen on the chart, they are all based on structural reclaim and not anticipation. The bigger movement is yet to demonstrate impulse but corrective, until price clears that level with strength.
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Wave 1 Expansion and Wave 2 Structure Explained
The larger pattern is based on a previous 814% growth that culminated in what he termed a textbook impulsive Wave 1, a pricing movement that had overwhelming momentum, sub-internal waves of actions that are clean, and a growing respect for an ascending macro channel that guides the price action today. That development has formed the greater bullish structure. However, the market has more recently shifted into what is termed Wave 2, the corrective stage, which has taken place within the expected Fibonacci retracement parameters.
The present price action is indicative of a pullback occurring within the 50 to 61.8% retracement level that is consistent with the Elliott Wave traditional period and yet occurs within the long-term trend that is characterized by a rising macro channel. Although volatility has tightened and momentum faded away, there is no structural invalidation of the fact that the price has not violated the source of Wave 1.
Structural Reclaim Stands Between XRP and $31
The projected Wave 3 targets are based on the common Fibonacci extensions, especially the 1.618 expansion, which in most cases marks the most powerful impulse in a bullish cycle. Those are, however, conditional projections as the market has to first recover the Wave 1 peak on a weekly closing basis before any labeling of impulsive becomes technically valid. The present phase is reparative without that reclaim.
The continued consolidation shows that Wave 2 can be continued either laterally or a little deeper without compromising the integrity of the macro structure. As long as XRP trades below the old high, then the expected Wave 3 progress toward the 31 will solely rely on that one structural action.
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